Who's leading for 2028?
Live prediction-market odds from Polymarket, primary-poll averages, FEC campaign-cash filings, and Parley quiz-taker voter signal. No endorsements, no editorial guesswork. Every candidate gets the same card — sorted by composite Nomination Momentum.
Which party wins the general?
Polymarket implied probability · 2028 general election. Third-party / independent share reflects historic ballot-access realities (Libertarian + Green typically reach 30–50 states each cycle but rarely cross 1% nationally).
Every contender, every party
All declared and rumored 2028 candidates across the four parties with consistent ballot access. Same card for everyone. Default sort is Nomination Momentum — a composite of prediction-market odds, primary polls, campaign cash, and Parley voter signal — but you can re-sort or filter by party.
How the Nomination Momentum meter works
Each candidate gets a single composite Nomination Momentum score (0–100), which lands them in one of five tiers: Frontrunner → Top tier → Contender → Watching → Wildcard. The score is a weighted average of four neutral, measurable signals — no endorsements, no social-media sentiment, no editorial guesswork.
- Polymarket — Live prediction-market implied probability for the nomination. Real money on outcomes; price reflects thousands of bettors. Source ↗
Weight in meter: 40% - Poll avg — Average of recent national primary polls (RealClearPolling, Echelon, CPAC straw poll, Quinnipiac, Marist, Marquette, Emerson). Dem source ↗ · GOP source ↗
Weight in meter: 35% - Campaign cash — Approximate available cash in the candidate's campaign committee + leadership PAC, in millions, from FEC filings. FEC source ↗
Weight in meter: 20%. Why cash and not endorsements: Parley is non-partisan. We don't list which senators / governors / unions back which candidates — that's editorializing dressed up as data. Cash is verifiable on FEC.gov and proxies real campaign infrastructure. - Parley voter signal — Aggregated from anonymous Parley quiz answers: which kind of leader (temperament + priorities) voters signal for, then matched against each candidate's known platform. Currently shows — until the voter-insights backend ships.
Weight in meter: 5% (low for now; rises as backend data accumulates)
Markets + polls + cash together correlate strongly with eventual nomination outcomes. The gap between Polymarket and polls is often where positioning is about to shift. Last manual refresh: April 25, 2026.
Data: Polymarket prediction markets (third-party). Inclusion on this page is descriptive, not an endorsement. Parley remains non-partisan.